Friday, November 28, 2008

Boise State, the BCS, and Gettin' Hosed

It is late and I am still awake. The obvious reason is that I am too pumped about tomorrow's college football games to allow myself to doze off. Another reason is that the kids that live in the apartment above us seem to be running laps at 12:30 AM. So, I won't try to fight it, and I'll just take this opportunity to give some more opinions on the BCS.

Tonight, Boise State finished out their perfect regular season with a 61-10 blowout of Fresno State, yet finds themselves on the outside of the BCS looking in. Their best chances of getting an at-large bid are for Oregon to beat Oregon State, thus keeping two PAC-10 schools out of the BCS (assuming USC has already punched their ticket -- which I believe they have). Then, they have to hope that a 2-loss Ohio State (big-game chokers!) team doesn't get chosen over them for the final BCS spot.

If Boise State does not get a BCS bid, they will end up playing in the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho on December 30th, on their home field, in the freezing cold, and earning the $750,000 payout that comes with it. However, should they get an at-large bid to play in the Orange Bowl, they would be playing on New Year's Day in front of a huge nationally televised audience, in beautiful south Florida, and earning the roughly $17-million payout that comes with it. That's quite a drop in location, exposure, and, most-importantly, money.

It is also a huge drop in competition, as they would be playing the #1 ACC team in the Orange Bowl, while they would be getting the #8 ACC team in the Humanitarian Bowl. Will anyone really tune-in to watch Boise State put up 60 points on Wake Forest? Doubtful. However, who wouldn't tune-in to see the Broncos play for an undefeated season against the ACC Champion? If you remember the Fiesta Bowl from a couple of years ago, you wouldn't miss this game for anything. That was by far the most exciting game I have ever watched in my life, and probably one of the most exciting games ever. On Boise State's last series, I wasn't on the edge of my seat. That is because I sitting on the floor 18 inches from my tv screen, watching in amazement. The hook-and-ladder and the statue of liberty, run to perfection, with no time left? To win the game? Yeah, sign me up again, please.

Some will say that Boise State doesn't deserve to be in a BCS game due to their schedule. And I agree, it is pretty dismal. Their best win was on the road against a decent Oregon team (8-3). However, after that, the level of competition drops off significantly. But for the most part, they are blowing out their lesser opponents and have earned their #9 ranking. They even have a 10th-ranked BCS computer average, so it is not just the humans that think they have earned their ranking.

(Soapbox Moment in 3....2....1.....) The problem with the BCS is that the six major conferences have automatic bids no matter what they are ranked. In 2005, a Florida State team ranked #22 in the BCS standings won the ACC and got to play in the Orange Bowl. And this year, it again appears that we will have a low-ranked, 3 or 4-loss ACC team playing in the Orange Bowl due to the automatic bid. Some may say that it just shows that the ACC is very good from top to bottom. I'll say that it shows that the ACC is full of evenly-matched, mediocre teams.

If Boise State is left out of the BCS mix, the Orange Bowl will likely pit Big East champ Cincinnati against the ACC champ (BC, V Tech, FSU, or G Tech). If that is the case, you can guarantee that I won't be watching the Orange Bowl this year. The combined ranking of these teams would be around 30; not exactly a prime BCS match-up if the ask me. The Capital One Bowl and the Cotton Bowl would be better match-ups than the Orange Bowl!

So, join me in rooting for the Ducks to upset the Beavers tomorrow, and maybe we'll get to watch Boise give us another football miracle this bowl season.

Friday, November 14, 2008

A BCS Playoff Idea

Many people have tried to come up with a good system for putting together a playoff system for college football (yes, I know there are already playoffs for teams that most people don't care about). So, since I love college football more than any sport in the world, I thought I'd take a crack at it as well. And please, save your cynicism until the end.

First, we need to decide how many teams to allow into this playoff. Too many teams, and you lose the significance that every game during the regular season currently has. But too few teams and you risk leaving out maybe the best team in the country at the end of the season that might have lost a couple games early. Therefore, I think the perfect number of teams is eight. The Awesome Ocho. Eight is great. The Elite Eight. Not too many teams, but just enough to provide three rounds of incredible football to crown the National Champion.

There we go. That was the easy part. The tough part comes in choosing which teams get to play, and when and where those teams meet up.

WHO gets to play?
The average, simple-minded fan might think that this is an easy question. Just take the top 8 teams in the final BCS standings and there you have it! However, for starters, the BCS is already way too complicated to take such a simple approach. And, conference commissioners might cry foul if there are three SEC and three Big XII teams in the playoff every year, leaving the other guys to fight for the scraps. Therefore, I have come up with these ground rules that, to me, seem fair and logical.

1) The first playoff spots will go to the winners of the 6 major conferences, provided that they finished in the top 10 of the BCS Standings. 'Winners' can be defined as either winning the conference championship game (ACC, BIG XII, SEC), or, finishing first in your conference as designated by the rules of each individual conference (BIG East, Big 10, Pac 10). If a conference winner does not meet the Top 10 rule, see rule 1a.

1a) If a conference champion does not finish in the top 10 of the final BCS Standings, but another conference member is somehow ranked in the top 8, they will get an automatic spot in the playoffs. For example, in 2005, Florida State upset #5 Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, thus by definition, becoming the ACC Champions. Florida State finished at #22 in the final BCS Standings and Virginia Tech fell all the way to #10. However, Miami finished at #8, and even though they did not win their conference, would represent the ACC in the playoffs. I feel this rule is important because it gives a conference another chance at an automatic spot should something crazy happen. It will be better for college football if each major conference has at least one team in the playoffs, as long as they have one team that is somewhat deserving.

2) The next playoff spots would go to non-major conference teams that finish in the top 8 of the final BCS Standings (see Boise State in 2006 and Notre Dame in 2005 as examples). If there is only "room" for one team and two or more qualify, the team with the highest ranking will be the nod.

3) If playoff spots still remain after this, then the teams ranked the highest in the final BCS Standings will get the remaining spots.

Here is how this would have played out the past 3 years:

2007
#1 Ohio State versus #9 West Virginia
#2 LSU versus #7 USC
#3 Virginia Tech versus #6 Missouri
#4 Oklahoma versus #5 Georgia
*#10 Hawaii doesn't make it to the playoffs, thank goodness*#8 Kansas also doesn't make it since WVU gets the automatic spot for winning their conference and finishing in the top 10. But with 2 Big XII teams already in the playoffs, I'm cool with this.

2006
#1 Ohio State versus #10 Oklahoma
#2 Florida versus #8 Boise State
#3 Michigan versus #6 Louisville
#4 LSU versus #5 USC
*#7 Wisconsin doesn't make it due to the automatic spot given to Oklahoma. However, 2 Big 10 teams are plenty to have in the playoffs.
*Also, with #14 Wake Forest being the highest-ranked ACC team, the ACC would not have a team in the playoffs. I am cool with this.

2005
#1 USC versus #8 Miami (who didn't win their conference but gets in due to rule 1a)
#2 Texas versus #7 Georgia
#3 Penn State versus #6 Notre Dame
#4 Ohio State versus #5 Oregon
*with #11 West Virginia being the highest-ranked Big East team, the Big East would not have a team in the playoffs. Again, I am cool with this.

And, if the playoffs started today, November 14, 2008, here is what it would look like for this year.
#1 Alabama versus #8 Penn State
#2 Texas Tech versus #7 Utah
#3 Texas versus #6 USC
#4 Florida versus #5 Oklahoma
*at #9, Boise State just misses the automatic spot, but they potential would have one by the end of the season.
*Top ACC team = UNC at #16; Top Big East team = Pitt at #21 ---- both conferences would not have a team in the playoffs, which is fine because they are pretty horrible this year.

WHEN and WHERE do they play?
This is probably the hardest question of them all, mostly because it has to do with money, and who gets that money. This is in fact the reason that we don't have a playoff system already. So, I won't get into the politics too much, because then we would never get anywhere. Only when the people in charge care more about the game of college football than they do about money will we ever see this happen. So, here is my scenario in a world where I get to make the decisions.

The first two first-round games will be on January 1st (one afternoon, the other at night), followed by one on the 2nd and one on the 3rd. Then, the semifinal games will be about a week later, at night, making sure to schedule around NFL playoffs games. And the BCS Championship game would be about a week after that, again, scheduling for maximum viewership.

The #1 and #2 seeds would be rewarded for their high ranking and get to host their first-round playoff game, with the other 2 games being played at one of the four major bowl sites, which would rotate annually like they currently do. Let's say this year it would be the Rose Bowl and the Orange Bowl. Then, the semi-final games would be played in the Fiesta and Sugar Bowls, giving preference to the highest remaining team as to where they want to play. And finally, the BCS Championship Game would be played at the same site as one of the four major bowl games like they do now. We'll say the Orange Bowl for this year, which would give the people at the Orange Bowl two weeks between games to prepare for the Championship Game.

Also, I might be in favor of a BCS Committee that would have the power to re-structure the seedings to keep teams from the same conference from playing each other in the first round, kind of like they do for the basketball tournament. I did not have to do that in the four scenarios above, but it would be nice to swap say, the #7 and #8 seeds to ensure that a team doesn't play a conference foe in the first round.

So, there you have it. Not perfect, but maybe between all of us we can come up with the perfect solution to the current college football mess. In the meantime, I am already getting pumped about another full day of college football tomorrow.

- RyanR

Thursday, November 13, 2008

If you are an SEC fan, you don't want a playoff.

If you are an SEC fan, you have to love the BCS. The BCS is geared toward getting SEC teams into the National Championship Game. This wasn't done on purpose, of course, but it is a reality of the current system.

Allow me to explain.

Preseason rankings matter when it comes to the BCS, and typically, there are plenty of SEC teams ranked near the top of those initial rankings. Why? I have a few ideas. The first reason is recruiting. Based on one list I saw a couple of days ago ranking recruiting classes for the 2009 season, there were eight SEC teams in the top 18 in the country. EIGHT!!! SEC teams recruit from what is considered the best talent pool, and as a result, voters think that those teams will immediately be better that coming football year. So, they get higher preseason rankings, year in and year out, and especially when SEC teams do so well in bowl games. Therefore, if those highly ranked teams lose one game, they usually don't fall too far and almost always have a shot at climbing back up into the top two. Also, like Alabama this year, SEC teams have a great chance to climb in the polls if they beat other preseason, over-hyped SEC teams. I also think that the cream of the coach crop in college football resides in the SEC, and voters will give those guys' teams higher rankings just because of who they are. We're talking guys like Steve Spurrier, Les Miles, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Houston Nutt, Mark Richt, and now even Bobby Petrino (I'll leave Phil Fulmer out of this one). I mean, how many of those guys have won National Championships? Bottom line is, pollsters all over the country have legitimate and not-so-legitimate reasons for thinking that the best football teams in the county reside in the SEC.

So, if the pollsters and the computers think such great things about the SEC, most SEC fans should be fine with the current system (minus the 2003 Auburn Tigers). Would you rather your team take a chance at being one of the top two teams and then having to play just one more game to win the National Championship? Or, would you rather your team have to run a gauntlet of maybe three games against tough competition, risking injuries or just having a bad game, to win the National Championship? As an SEC fan, I'd choose the one game.

Now, some will argue that a playoff would legitimize the National Champion. But does that really matter after over 100 years of NOT having a playoff? Do people look back now and say that all those Oklahoma or Alabama or USC national championships don't count because they weren't earned through a playoff system? Of course not!

As a fan of college football, I want nothing more than a playoff system (8 teams would be perfect), but if you are a fan of the SEC, you are better off with the way things are right now.

- RyanR
This conversation happened on Friday, October 10th, the day before the LSU game...

SteveB: well first of all.... why is LSU ranked so high? they havent played anyone and have not even been impressive
JakeB: we should've beat em last year, we're better now, they're worse now... we should win unless Dan Mullen screws it up again
SteveB: uhhh, yeah, thats the ONLY thing im worried about
JakeB: its a legitimate concern
SteveB: absolutely... they have turned Tebow into a curse instead of an asset
JakeB: i hope no one blocks Ricky Jean-Francois on the first play and they let Tebow go straight at him
SteveB: haha, that would be awesome...... yeah, a win will put us in prime time spot to keep rolling... in the polls and as confidence for the team
JakeB: yep, and we have an off week next, so no one's looking ahead we'll have 2 weeks to get ready for Kentucky, which should help... and hopefully we don't look past them to Georgia
SteveB: Kentucky wont be able to score more than 10 points on us... have you been watching Joe Haden this year?.... he's a completely different player.... he's everywhere, in on every play, he's a baller
JakeB: yeah, he's a monster... JoshD and i have been talking about him since game 1
SteveB: likewise, i've just been talking to myself.... he looks like he's put on 25 pounds too
JakeB: yeah, he looks good, and Janoris Jenkins is looking good too, we're gonna have 2 shut-down corners next year
SteveB: hell yeah, and Major Wright is still a hitting machine, he doesnt have the instinct for the ball that Reggie Nelson had, but he's good
JakeB: we're losing Percy Harvin, so as long someone steps up, we'll be awesome next year... Reggie Nelson was amazing, Major Wright isn't a first round pick, but he's respectable
SteveB: definitely... if Dan Mullen would wake up and put any combo of Percy Harvin, Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey, Brandon James in the backfield together and run some ball fakes and misdirections we would have every defense in the country scrambling to pick up their own pants JakeB: agreed... i don't have any idea what he's doing
SteveB: it seems so obvious... it's like he is terrified to do anything other than normal stuff.... when you have abnormally fast guys you have to expose that, those guys breaking free and running 70 yards on a standard off tackle play isnt exposing them, its getting lucky
JakeB: i completely agree, all we have to do is attack... whenever we're agressive, we move the ball so easily
SteveB: yep, and then for some unknown reason we decide to curl up into the fetal postion at random... i'd say that maybe they have been saving some of the schemes for the big games but that cant be the case considering we already lost
JakeB: well it could be the case that they didnt practice it, and therefore, couldnt call it in the game... i really think that's his problem, preparation.... sometimes his game plan works, and sometimes it doesn't, but he rarely makes adjustments just keeps doing whatever he was doing... so they run what they practice, sometimes it just doesnt work
SteveB: yeah, and in those cases i start yelling at the tv because it pisses me off
JakeB: me too

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

I went to the UGA game [at Kentucky]. Heartbreaker. I've been so pissed about this season. I've been screaming at our coach all year to play that true freshman QB (Cobb) over Hartline. Hartline is terrible.
I'm sure you remember in the UF game [vs. Kentucky] that Hartline did absolutely nothing, whereas Cobb drove us down the field twice to end the first half (one FG and one blocked FG)...then Brooks brings Hartline back in and he lobs the first pass of the 2nd half over to one of your boys for 7 the other way...and he comes back with him again. I can't understand it. I kept saying that if he would finally just play Cobb for a full game, we could possibly beat Georgia. Then our defense plays like garbage. Also, our best DB, Trevard Lindley, got hurt and we really couldn't do anything defensively. At least we have an exciting offense again. Sick thing is that, if we'd have played Cobb all year, we would've beaten Alabama and South Carolina and possibly UGA (b/c he'd have come in w/ more experience). This is supposed to be a down year and we could be in the midst of an incredible season. You guys still would've pounded us no matter what.

- PatC
I wish I could go back 2 years when JaMarcus Russell was drafted by the Raiders and write a post describing why he was going to be a bust (ChrisB agreed with me). Because then I could look back at that blog and say I told you so. But instead, I just have to convince people that I knew he would be a bust.

- SteveB