Non-Conference Scheduling

Whoa Nelly! Football season is a month off, give or take a day, so I am naturally getting Tiger Woods fist pump-pumped about 1) Getting to watch a whole lot of college football, and 2) Being able to completely ignore baseball, its cheaters, and its 160-whatever games a year. So, expect some more posts from me over the next fews weeks as we lead up to the start of the best regular season in all of sports.

Today's post will talk about something that people seem to bring up a lot during this time of the year: non-conference scheduling. Different posters like to point out that their team schedules difficult non-conference games, while making fun of other schools that schedule cupcakes (with much of the cupcake talk being directed at SEC schools). Other than the fact that it would be great for college football fans to see more BCS-major conference teams go up against each other, there really isn't a good reason for many schools to schedule a tough non-conference schedule. Here is why:

Your Strength of Schedule may suffer (for BCS-standing purposes), but it probably won't.
If you are in the SEC or the Big XII (thought by most to be the two best conferences from top to bottom) your strength of schedule usually isn't hurt by a weak non-conference schedule since you will end up playing 4 or 5 top-25 teams during the course of the year, and especially if you make it to your conference's championship game. Historically, the risk of scheduling tough games outside of your league has not proven to be necessary.

Previous BCS Champions have had less than stellar non-conference schedules and still claimed the ultimate prize
Four of the past six BCS championships have gone to the SEC (UF in '06 and '08; LSU in '07 and '03) and each time these teams were able to make it into the BCS Championship Game with a loss on their schedule and a mediocre non-conference schedule. LSU even had TWO losses in '07 and snuck into the NCG. So, why make it even tougher on your team than you have to?

Doesn't every team begin the year with the hopes of bringing home a National Championship? It just blows my mind that so many PAC-10 and Big-10 fans cry and moan over this issue when the bottom line is that SEC schools are just smart for working the system. Until something changes that would require teams like LSU and Florida to schedule tougher teams in order to make it to the NCG, why would they?

And just for reference, here are the non-conference schedules of the past 6 BCS winners with their most difficult non-conference(s) games in bold:

2003 - LSU
Louisiana Monroe (finished 1-11)
@ Arizona (finished 2-10)
Western Illinois (finished 9-4)
La Tech (finished 5-7)
*Look how sorry this non-conference schedule was, and yet they still got chosen over USC to play in the NCG.

2004 - Southern Cal
@ Virginia Tech (finished 10-3)
Colorado State (finished 4-7)
@ BYU (finished 5-6)
Notre Dame (finished 6-6)
*While some of these games may have looked good going into the season, their records show that even the mighty Trojans only had one legitimately tough non-conference game (They just waxed the floor with everyone they faced this year).

2005 - Texas
Louisiana Lafayette (finished 6-5)
@ Ohio State (finished 10-2)
Rice (finished 1-10)

2006 - Florida
Southern Mississippi (finished 9-5)
Central Florida (finished 4-8)
Western Carolina (finished 2-9)
@ Florida State (finished 7-6)
*A road-win against their biggest rival and a decent season by Southern Miss were barely enough to help UF's SOS in over-taking Michigan for 2nd in the final BCS standings in 2006, sending them to the NCG where they showed Ohio State how football is supposed to be played.

2007 - LSU
Virginia Tech (finished 11-3)
Middle Tennessee State (finished 5-7)
@ Tulane (finished 4-8)
La Tech (finished 5-7)
*That early season blow-out of a very good Hokies team was enough to get LSU back into the NCG even after two losses.

2008 - Florida
Hawaii (finished 7-7)
Miami FL (finished 7-6)
Citadel (finished 4-8)
@ Florida State (finished 9-4)

Why Utah is not #1

Don't get me wrong. It is a special thing to go undefeated in D-1 football, no matter what conference you are in. The parity in college football has never been more evident, so going undefeated in say, the Mountain West conference, does indeed prove that you are a great football team. However, it does not mean that you are best team and deserving to be #1. I think you'll agree with me by the end of this article.

Comparing Utah and Florida's schedules:
Florida beat 10 bowl teams this season, who went 6-4 in bowl games.
Utah beat 6 bowl teams this season, who went 3-3 in bowl games.

Florida beat 5 teams ranked in the final AP poll, with an average ranking of 11.8 (5,6,13,14,21).
Utah beat 4 teams ranked in the final AP poll, with an average ranking of 14 (6,7,18,25).

Both teams played Alabama on a neutral site and both beat them. However, Florida beat them when the game meant everything to BOTH teams. Utah beat them when everything was on the line for just Utah. Alabama was also without their stud OL Andre Smith against Utah. The result? 8 sacks for the Utes. Clearly Utah showed up to play this game, and Alabama just showed up to receive their bowl gifts.

But Utah Didn't Lose, and Florida Did
This is true. Utah went 13-0, while the Gators went 13-1. The Gators one loss came to Ole Miss back in September as the result of the Gators playing a pretty bad half of football. Turnovers (3) and missed opportunities (missed PAT at end of game, and, missed 4th and 1 conversion) did the Gators in as they lost 31-30. Yet in my mind, Utah has a couple of losses of their own.

Playing in the SEC is tough, because if you play a bad quarter or a bad half, you will probably lose the game. Yet, in the Mountain West, you can do that and still come out with a win. Take Utah's game against Air Force. The Utes turned the ball over 3 times and barely escaped with a 30-23 win. Turning the ball over 3 times and still winning is a rarity in the SEC. Or, take the New Mexico game. The Utes had 2 turnovers themselves, didn't cause any turnovers, and barely won 13-10. AGAINST NEW MEXICO!!!! IN NOVEMBER!!! New Mexico didn't even go to a bowl game and finished 4-8 on the season. Surely if Utah is such a dominating team deserving to be #1, they could have, and should have, destroyed a team like New Mexico. Finally, we can't forget about Utah's 13-10 win over TCU. Utah was outgained 416 yards to 275 years. Plus, the horned frogs had two chip-shot field goals that would have tied or won the game in the 4th quarter and missed them both. Boise State would have played Alabama in the Sugar Bowl if TCU had a half-way decent field goal kicker. As far as I am concerned, those wins are just as good as losses.

But back to Ole Miss. Yes, the Gators lost. Yes, they lost at home. However, they lost to a team who went 9-4 on the season, with those four losses coming at a TOTAL of 19 points. Ole Miss is a great football team, and even proved it by going into Texas and beating up on Texas Tech on New Year's Day. Losing to them looked less and less of an eye-sore as the season went on.

The odds makers in Las Vegas even put a hypothetical line on a Utah versus Florida matchup. They would put the Gators as 14 point favorites. While those guys aren't always right, it is something to think about.

Where does Utah Belong?
Utah is a top team in the country, but surely doesn't deserve #1 consideration over the Gators. Be happy with #2 in the AP poll and #4 in the Coaches poll. And pray to God that a playoff is on the horizon.