Non-Conference Scheduling

Whoa Nelly! Football season is a month off, give or take a day, so I am naturally getting Tiger Woods fist pump-pumped about 1) Getting to watch a whole lot of college football, and 2) Being able to completely ignore baseball, its cheaters, and its 160-whatever games a year. So, expect some more posts from me over the next fews weeks as we lead up to the start of the best regular season in all of sports.

Today's post will talk about something that people seem to bring up a lot during this time of the year: non-conference scheduling. Different posters like to point out that their team schedules difficult non-conference games, while making fun of other schools that schedule cupcakes (with much of the cupcake talk being directed at SEC schools). Other than the fact that it would be great for college football fans to see more BCS-major conference teams go up against each other, there really isn't a good reason for many schools to schedule a tough non-conference schedule. Here is why:

Your Strength of Schedule may suffer (for BCS-standing purposes), but it probably won't.
If you are in the SEC or the Big XII (thought by most to be the two best conferences from top to bottom) your strength of schedule usually isn't hurt by a weak non-conference schedule since you will end up playing 4 or 5 top-25 teams during the course of the year, and especially if you make it to your conference's championship game. Historically, the risk of scheduling tough games outside of your league has not proven to be necessary.

Previous BCS Champions have had less than stellar non-conference schedules and still claimed the ultimate prize
Four of the past six BCS championships have gone to the SEC (UF in '06 and '08; LSU in '07 and '03) and each time these teams were able to make it into the BCS Championship Game with a loss on their schedule and a mediocre non-conference schedule. LSU even had TWO losses in '07 and snuck into the NCG. So, why make it even tougher on your team than you have to?

Doesn't every team begin the year with the hopes of bringing home a National Championship? It just blows my mind that so many PAC-10 and Big-10 fans cry and moan over this issue when the bottom line is that SEC schools are just smart for working the system. Until something changes that would require teams like LSU and Florida to schedule tougher teams in order to make it to the NCG, why would they?

And just for reference, here are the non-conference schedules of the past 6 BCS winners with their most difficult non-conference(s) games in bold:

2003 - LSU
Louisiana Monroe (finished 1-11)
@ Arizona (finished 2-10)
Western Illinois (finished 9-4)
La Tech (finished 5-7)
*Look how sorry this non-conference schedule was, and yet they still got chosen over USC to play in the NCG.

2004 - Southern Cal
@ Virginia Tech (finished 10-3)
Colorado State (finished 4-7)
@ BYU (finished 5-6)
Notre Dame (finished 6-6)
*While some of these games may have looked good going into the season, their records show that even the mighty Trojans only had one legitimately tough non-conference game (They just waxed the floor with everyone they faced this year).

2005 - Texas
Louisiana Lafayette (finished 6-5)
@ Ohio State (finished 10-2)
Rice (finished 1-10)

2006 - Florida
Southern Mississippi (finished 9-5)
Central Florida (finished 4-8)
Western Carolina (finished 2-9)
@ Florida State (finished 7-6)
*A road-win against their biggest rival and a decent season by Southern Miss were barely enough to help UF's SOS in over-taking Michigan for 2nd in the final BCS standings in 2006, sending them to the NCG where they showed Ohio State how football is supposed to be played.

2007 - LSU
Virginia Tech (finished 11-3)
Middle Tennessee State (finished 5-7)
@ Tulane (finished 4-8)
La Tech (finished 5-7)
*That early season blow-out of a very good Hokies team was enough to get LSU back into the NCG even after two losses.

2008 - Florida
Hawaii (finished 7-7)
Miami FL (finished 7-6)
Citadel (finished 4-8)
@ Florida State (finished 9-4)

ACC vs. SEC

ChrisB brought up a really good point in his comment on Boise State, the BCS, and Gettin' Hosed and I wanted to elaborate. Here is part of his comment:

"Also...the ACC teams that we all "do not want to see" beat three bowl eligible SEC teams this weekend. FSU was the only ACC team to fall to an SEC team and overall for the year the ACC has a winning record against the down SEC this year. Maybe South Carolina, Vandy, and Georgia should stay home with Auburn and make room for Clemson, Wake, and Ga Tech."

This thought had crossed my mind just recently as well and so here are the ACC vs. SEC results for the year.

Florida (11-1) beat FSU (8-4) and Miami (7-5).
Alabama (12-0) beat Clemson (7-5)
Wake Forest (7-5) beat Ole Miss (8-4) and Vanderbilt (6-6)
Georgia Tech (9-3) beat Mississippi State (4-8) and Georgia (9-3)
Duke (4-8) beat Vanderbilt

I think we can all agree that Florida and Alabama are hands down better than the rest of the SEC (although a reasonable argument could be made for Ole Miss). Removing Florida and Alabama from the results above you have the ACC at 5-0 against the SEC.

The SEC had 6 preseason AP Top 25 teams (#1 Georgia, #5 Florida, #7 LSU, #10 Auburn, #18 Tennessee, #24 Alabama). The ACC had 3 (#9 Clemson, #17 Virginia Tech, #23 Wake Forest).
Currently the AP Top 25 looks like this:

SEC: #1 Alabama, #2 Florida, #17 Georgia, #22 Ole Miss
ACC: #15 Georgia Tech, #18 Boston College

The SEC had twice as many preseason teams in the AP Top 25 than the ACC and despite a bit of switching around that fact still remains true. What is extremely interesting about all of this are these final numbers...

Overall record for the SEC: 85-59
Overall record for the ACC: 85-59
Out of conference record for the SEC: 37-11
Out of conference record for the ACC: 37-11
ACC vs. SEC: 5-3

Bowl season is gonna be very interesting...