Whoa Nelly! Football season is a month off, give or take a day, so I am naturally getting Tiger Woods fist pump-pumped about 1) Getting to watch a whole lot of college football, and 2) Being able to completely ignore baseball, its cheaters, and its 160-whatever games a year. So, expect some more posts from me over the next fews weeks as we lead up to the start of the best regular season in all of sports.
Today's post will talk about something that people seem to bring up a lot during this time of the year: non-conference scheduling. Different posters like to point out that their team schedules difficult non-conference games, while making fun of other schools that schedule cupcakes (with much of the cupcake talk being directed at SEC schools). Other than the fact that it would be great for college football fans to see more BCS-major conference teams go up against each other, there really isn't a good reason for many schools to schedule a tough non-conference schedule. Here is why:
Your Strength of Schedule may suffer (for BCS-standing purposes), but it probably won't.
If you are in the SEC or the Big XII (thought by most to be the two best conferences from top to bottom) your strength of schedule usually isn't hurt by a weak non-conference schedule since you will end up playing 4 or 5 top-25 teams during the course of the year, and especially if you make it to your conference's championship game. Historically, the risk of scheduling tough games outside of your league has not proven to be necessary.
Previous BCS Champions have had less than stellar non-conference schedules and still claimed the ultimate prize
Four of the past six BCS championships have gone to the SEC (UF in '06 and '08; LSU in '07 and '03) and each time these teams were able to make it into the BCS Championship Game with a loss on their schedule and a mediocre non-conference schedule. LSU even had TWO losses in '07 and snuck into the NCG. So, why make it even tougher on your team than you have to?
Doesn't every team begin the year with the hopes of bringing home a National Championship? It just blows my mind that so many PAC-10 and Big-10 fans cry and moan over this issue when the bottom line is that SEC schools are just smart for working the system. Until something changes that would require teams like LSU and Florida to schedule tougher teams in order to make it to the NCG, why would they?
And just for reference, here are the non-conference schedules of the past 6 BCS winners with their most difficult non-conference(s) games in bold:
2003 - LSU
Louisiana Monroe (finished 1-11)
@ Arizona (finished 2-10)
Western Illinois (finished 9-4)
La Tech (finished 5-7)
*Look how sorry this non-conference schedule was, and yet they still got chosen over USC to play in the NCG.
2004 - Southern Cal
@ Virginia Tech (finished 10-3)
Colorado State (finished 4-7)
@ BYU (finished 5-6)
Notre Dame (finished 6-6)
*While some of these games may have looked good going into the season, their records show that even the mighty Trojans only had one legitimately tough non-conference game (They just waxed the floor with everyone they faced this year).
2005 - Texas
Louisiana Lafayette (finished 6-5)
@ Ohio State (finished 10-2)
Rice (finished 1-10)
2006 - Florida
Southern Mississippi (finished 9-5)
Central Florida (finished 4-8)
Western Carolina (finished 2-9)
@ Florida State (finished 7-6)
*A road-win against their biggest rival and a decent season by Southern Miss were barely enough to help UF's SOS in over-taking Michigan for 2nd in the final BCS standings in 2006, sending them to the NCG where they showed Ohio State how football is supposed to be played.
2007 - LSU
Virginia Tech (finished 11-3)
Middle Tennessee State (finished 5-7)
@ Tulane (finished 4-8)
La Tech (finished 5-7)
*That early season blow-out of a very good Hokies team was enough to get LSU back into the NCG even after two losses.
2008 - Florida
Hawaii (finished 7-7)
Miami FL (finished 7-6)
Citadel (finished 4-8)
@ Florida State (finished 9-4)
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Agreed. The Big 10 and Pac 10 can complain all they want but it's without merit. They know they have to schedule bigger games right now in order to be considered, or hope they go undefeated and both the SEC and Big 12 don't end up with an undefeated team as well.
ReplyDeleteThe pollsters favor the SEC and Big 12 right now. The other conferences can complain about it but it's not going to change anything. If they start scheduling big games, winning them, and are still getting snubbed then they have ground to stand on. In regards to the pollsters favoring the SEC, see my post ACC vs. SEC. If someone said the SEC got too much credit last year I would not disagree with them. There were three good/great teams in the SEC; UF, Alabama and Ole Miss.
Florida may have the weakest schedule they've had in the past few years this season simply because the SEC is not what it was a few years ago. I'm not complaining about the extra hype and pollster favoritism but I can't say the haters are that far off.